Is Starlink being hunted?
We have been carefully tracking the use of Starlink terminals in Ukraine, and we grow increasingly concerned about their use.
Based on conversations we’ve had with sources inside Ukraine, it appears that they are being hunted. We don’t have enough evidence to conclusively establish that, but we note with extreme concern their use by anyone in any part of Ukraine.
Between their distribution by USAID (which Russia continues to maintain is a CIA front) and Elon’s ego, it’s likely that even if Russia has not yet started targeting Starlink terminals, it is very likely that they will.
Unfortunately, it appears that hunting operations have likely already started.
Our sources report that, on at least one occasion, a group using a Starlink terminal (NOT associated with Project Kilroy) reported that they “came under artillery fire within two minutes of activating the terminal.” They could not conclusively establish that it was as a result of their use of the terminal, but that was their assessment at the time. We’ve asked for more information but have not yet received any updates.
We note that this attack profile is typical of Russian military tactics. Russian electronic warfare units are generally in close communication with Russian artillery units. Frequently, they are even deployed side by side, so that they can rapidly feed targeting information to the artillery (which is still a manual process for many of these units).
This raises the question of whether the use of Starlink terminals is worth the risk.
Our assessment is that Russian forces have the ability AND the desire to target Starlink users.
Multiple media sources have reported that Starlink terminals are being used both by civilians and by Ukrainian fighters. Even if Russia wanted to discriminate between those two groups, we do not believe that is possible for them to do. That makes it likely that they will target Starlink terminals with kinetic attacks.
We strongly recommend Starlink NOT be used by civilians within 75 miles / 120 km of ANY active combat areas, nor used anywhere where there is any evidence of ANY Russian aircraft operating. That is a high bar, because Russia continues to use long-range air- and sea-launched cruise missiles to hit cities in Ukraine that are hundreds of miles from Russian forces.
We hope that the Ukrainian military can discriminate between Starlink users’ and Russian forces’ use of other satellite systems, but we have no knowledge if that is the case. That raises the possibility that Starlink users may not be safe even within areas fully under the control of Ukrainian forces.
Given the pervasiveness of Internet access within Ukraine, we strongly recommend against Starlink use anywhere except where there is no alternative – from any source, at any cost.
Landline/wireline Internet should always be the primary means of communication within any conflict zone.
Finally, we will again repeat that the two statements made by Elon Musk are the two most critical for using Starlink – use if for very short time periods AND keep everyone VERY far from the terminal. That means in excess of 1000 yards/meters. Russian artillery strikes are notoriously inaccurate and have a MASSIVE kill and injury zone.
Image: UN OHCHR
FIN